What does the hindsight bias refer to?

The hindsight bias refers to the phenomenon where individuals believe that an event was predictable or should have been anticipated after it has occurred, leading them to feel that the outcome was obvious all along. This cognitive bias can cause people to overestimate their ability to have foreseen the outcome, often resulting in a skewed perception of past events.

In the context of the options presented, the belief that outcomes "should have been anticipated" perfectly encapsulates the essence of hindsight bias. It highlights how knowledge of the outcome can influence one's judgment about the predictability of that outcome before it occurred.

The other options do not capture this concept accurately. Predicting outcomes accurately pertains more to forecasting skills rather than the bias of hindsight. Relying on logical deductions speaks to reasoning processes rather than the retrospective judgment influenced by hindsight. Lastly, the accuracy of past forecasting addresses the quality of predictions rather than the bias that comes from understanding outcomes after they have already happened.